Supply chain modelling
comparing routes by cost and lead time
Supply chain modelling answers a question that a single rate cannot: what works best for your goods — sea via Vladivostok, direct rail via Zabaikalsk or road via Pogranichny. We compare routes by full landed cost, lead time and its variability.
A fast route costs more in freight but saves on capital in transit and safety stock; a cheap one does the opposite. The model shows where the line falls for your product range and volumes.
Specification
Specification · Supply chain modelling. Standard terms · number of scenarios and timing are confirmed once the question is framed
Service
- Type
- supply chain scenario modelling
- Lanes
- China, Korea, Japan, SE Asia, India, Turkey, UAE → Russia
- Options
- pilot shipment on the chosen scheme
Terms
- Timing
- about 2–3 weeks
- Format
- Excel model + summary memo
- Currency
- USD / RUB
Stages
- Stage 1
- question and input data
- Stage 2
- scenario calculation and stress test
- Stage 3
- recommendation and backup route
Price
- Base
- by number of scenarios and lanes
- Extras
- quarterly recalculation — on request
Service flow
- 01
Framing the question
We pin down the question the model must answer: which route to choose, whether to split lots, whether a consolidation warehouse in China is needed, which backup option to keep.
1–2 days - 02
Input data
We gather current and market rates for each leg, typical transit times and their spread, product and stock data. Gaps are filled from market quotes and our experience on these lanes.
3–5 days - 03
Scenario calculation
For each scenario we calculate landed cost per unit, door-to-door lead time and its spread, cost of capital in transit and the safety stock required.
1 week - 04
Sensitivity
We test how the results hold up under rising rates, FX shifts, peak season and delays at a border crossing or port, and find the switch points between schemes.
2–3 days - 05
Recommendation
We hand over the scenario table and a recommendation: primary route, backup route and the conditions for switching. The model stays with you for recalculation.
1–2 days
Problems
The route is chosen on the lowest freight rate, and then extra is paid for idle time, storage and an expensive inland leg.
We compare options only on landed cost per unit — from the supplier's factory to your warehouse.
The average transit time is what gets counted, while the warehouse suffers from variability: a lot arrives two weeks late and the shelves are empty.
The model includes not only the average lead time but its spread by stage, and calculates the safety stock each route requires.
The scheme works while things are calm; when a crossing closes or the port gets congested there is no fallback.
We stress-test scenarios for disruptions and describe a backup route with its cost and lead time in advance.
Documents
Data for the model. The Incoterms rule decides which part of the route you can actually change — that is where we start.
Incoterms
- EXW / FCA
- you choose the route — we model the whole chain from the factory
- FOB
- we compare loading ports and ocean services
- CPT / DAP
- the seller controls the route — we check whether FCA would pay off
Documents
- Product data
- HS codes, weight, volume, unit value, special handling (DG, temperature control)
- Purchasing plan
- monthly volumes, suppliers and their locations
- Current rates
- freight, rail, road, terminal, bonded storage — from invoices or contracts
- Stock and sales
- stock turnover and safety stock — to price the lead time
FAQ
It is the calculation of several delivery options under different conditions — route, mode, lot size, season — to see how cost and lead time change. The decision is tested on numbers before the first shipment rather than through costly mistakes.
There is no single answer: it depends on the supplier's city, the destination in Russia, the value of the goods and the volume. For high-value goods, savings on days in transit and safety stock often outweigh the freight difference; for heavy, low-value goods it is the reverse. That is why the comparison must be on landed cost, not on the rate.
A rate is the price of one route today. Modelling compares several schemes by full cost, lead time and its variability, and shows at what volume, rate or exchange rate it pays to switch to another option.
We take the value of the lot multiplied by your cost of capital and the number of days from supplier payment to sale. On top of that comes safety stock, which grows with the length and instability of the lead time.
Yes. We factor in peak seasons (before Chinese New Year, the autumn peak), rate and FX swings, queues and restrictions at border crossings. For each scenario you see not only the average cost but also how resilient it is to disruption.
At minimum: supplier and consignee cities, monthly volumes, lot weight and volume, value of goods and current rates. Stock turnover data helps to calculate safety stock.